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Aperture Brief · March 1, 2026 · 6 articles

US and Israel Launch Major Strike Campaign to Topple Iranian Regime

Executive SummaryAI-generated

The United States and Israel launched a coordinated military assault on Iran on February 28, 2026, striking nuclear facilities, missile infrastructure, and leadership compounds with the explicit goal of regime change. Iran responded with counterstrikes. Six nations—Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Israel, Syria, and the UAE—closed their airspace, grounding thousands of civilian flights and signaling immediate regional contagion.

In the near term, this marks the most consequential US military escalation in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, with regime-change objectives carrying similar risks of protracted instability. Over the next one to two years, expect severe disruption to global energy markets, a humanitarian crisis inside Iran, and intensified proxy warfare across Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and the Gulf. Over five to ten years, the strike campaign will reshape the Middle East's strategic architecture—either collapsing Iran's theocratic state and creating a vacuum, or galvanizing its resistance and accelerating nuclear proliferation elsewhere.

On an epochal scale, this event tests whether great-power military force can still reshape political orders in a multipolar, nuclear-threshold world without triggering cascading global consequences. The precedent set—open regime-change warfare against a near-nuclear state—will define how Russia, China, India, and others calibrate their own security postures for decades. The implications for collective human governance, energy transition timelines, and the global norms against aggressive war are profound and irreversible.

What You Need to KnowAI-generated

  • 01
    US and Israel Execute Coordinated Regime-Change Campaign Against Iran On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched strikes targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, missile infrastructure, and leadership compounds with President Trump explicitly stating regime change as the objective. This represents the most significant US military escalation in the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq invasion. The coordinated nature and regime-change goals signal a fundamental shift from containment to elimination strategy against Iran's theocratic state.
  • 02
    Six Nations Close Airspace Indicating Immediate Regional Conflict Spread Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Israel, Syria, and the UAE all implemented at least partial airspace closures, grounding thousands of civilian flights across the Middle East on February 28. The geographic scope extends far beyond the primary combatants, demonstrating how quickly regional states anticipate military spillover. This civilian aviation disruption signals the conflict's potential for immediate regional engulfment rather than contained bilateral warfare.
  • 03
    Iranian Nuclear Facilities Face Direct Military Targeting for First Time US and Israeli forces struck Iranian nuclear facilities as primary targets in the February 28 assault, marking the first direct military action against Iran's nuclear infrastructure. This crosses a threshold that Iran has long declared would trigger maximum retaliation. The targeting of nuclear sites eliminates diplomatic solutions and forces Iran into a corner where nuclear acceleration or complete capitulation become the primary options.
  • 04
    Middle East Energy Markets Confront Unprecedented Supply Chain Disruption Risk The coordinated strikes against Iran and resulting airspace closures across six nations create immediate threats to oil and gas transit routes through the Persian Gulf and broader Middle East. Iran controls critical chokepoints and has demonstrated willingness to disrupt energy flows when attacked. Expect severe global energy price volatility and potential supply shortages as markets price in extended conflict scenarios.
  • 05
    Trump Administration Abandons Decades of Iran Containment Policy Framework President Trump's public statement of regime change objectives represents a complete departure from containment strategies pursued by previous administrations since 1979. The explicit goal of toppling Tehran's government commits the US to an open-ended military campaign with unclear exit strategies. This policy shift eliminates diplomatic off-ramps and commits American resources to a potentially protracted Middle East engagement.
  • 06
    Regional Proxy Networks Activate as Iran Faces Existential Military Threat With Iranian leadership compounds targeted directly, expect immediate activation of proxy forces across Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and Gaza as Iran's survival strategy. The regime's network of allied militias represents its primary asymmetric response capability when facing superior conventional forces. These proxy activations will expand the conflict geography beyond the initial strike zones into population centers across the region.
  • 07
    International Precedent Emerges for Regime-Change Warfare Against Nuclear-Threshold States The US-Israel campaign establishes a new precedent for military action against near-nuclear states with regime-change objectives, fundamentally altering global strategic calculations. Russia, China, North Korea, and other nuclear-threshold nations will reassess their deterrence strategies based on this demonstration. The precedent legitimizes preemptive regime-change operations and undermines existing nuclear non-proliferation frameworks.

What You Need to DoAI-generated

  • ●
    Crisis Management
    ImmediateConvene emergency crisis management team to assess immediate operational disruptions from Middle East airspace closures, review alternative routing options for regional operations, and implement contingency protocols for staff safety and business continuity in affected territories. (Addresses: Crisis Management)
  • ●
    Strategic Risk Assessment
    ImmediateBrief senior leadership on regime change implications for Iranian business relationships, sanction compliance requirements, and potential secondary sanctions affecting regional partners following US-Israel coordinated strikes against Iranian nuclear and military infrastructure. (Addresses: Strategic Risk Assessment)
  • ●
    Supply Chain Resilience
    This WeekAssess supply chain vulnerabilities and alternative sourcing options for critical materials transiting through Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Syria, and UAE given widespread airspace closures and escalating regional military conflict affecting logistics networks. (Addresses: Supply Chain Resilience)
  • ●
    Financial Risk Management
    This WeekMonitor oil price volatility and energy market disruptions stemming from strikes on Iranian infrastructure, evaluate hedging strategies to protect against commodity price spikes, and review energy procurement contracts for force majeure clauses. (Addresses: Financial Risk Management)
  • ●
    Strategic Planning
    This MonthPrepare comprehensive scenario planning for prolonged Middle East instability including potential Iranian retaliation, broader regional conflict escalation, and long-term geopolitical realignment affecting regional market access and investment strategies across affected territories. (Addresses: Strategic Planning)

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